Yole on Coronavirus Impact on CIS Market

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Yole Developpement's Q4 2019 quarterly monitor "CIS: Q4 2019 went way above forecast but this was before COVID-19" states:


  • Q4 2019 is 17% above revenue forecast and reaches US$5,746 million: 11.3% of upside is due to volume upside and 9.1% due to ASP3 upside.
  • The coronavirus outbreak impact of the epidemic will influence mostly on mobile and consumer CIS market with a drop in forecast on the global smartphone market expected on Q1 and Q2 2020.
  • 2019 YoY revenue growth is higher than expected and reaches 25%, with a Q2Q growth at 38% in Q4 2019.
  • CIS YoY growth should slow down to 7% in 2020 but this number will be aggravated by the outbreak of COVID-19.
  • Long term growth should go below 10% within 5 years.

Y2020 NUMBERS: The best ever year for the CIS industry

This time reality exceeded Yole Développement (Yole) forecast quite significantly. Yole had predicted revenue of US$17.2b for 2020 and this prediction ended 11% below the confirmed numbers for the year. The extensive growth of CIS has brought this semiconductor specialty to revenues of US$19.3b in 2019, exceeding 4.6% of total semiconductor sales.

Reflecting on the year’s dynamics, Q1 and Q2 2019 had been underwhelming, both running 6% below expectation in a context of smartphone market saturation and trade war rhetoric. Q3 and Q4 totally reversed the gloomy trend of H1 2020, and the release of exciting smartphones with numerous cameras propelled the industry to overcapacity bringing US$5.7 billion per quarter to the ecosystem…

Q1 & Q2 2020: Short term forecast will be impacted by COVID-19

What we cannot predict at Yole is the possibility of a systemic recession,” comments Pierre Cambou, Principal Analyst, Imaging at Yole. “People will still buy smartphones and smart speakers in 2021 so the risk is more a contamination coming from the financial sector than a biological threat,” he adds.

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