Yole Forecasts 3 Years Needed for Recovery of Automotive Market

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Yole Developpement report "Sensing and Computing for ADAS Vehicle 2020" forecasts:

"The auto industry has seen the impact of the coronavirus crisis evolve from a supply shock to a global demand shock. The production of new cars is expected to decline by 30% compared to the 2019 production level.

It is expected that three years will be needed to recover and get back to the same level of output. In 2020, it is expected that the global market for radars, cameras, LiDARs and computing hardware should reach $7.1B. More than half of this market revenue will be generated by radars with $4.2B, followed by cameras with $2.7B. LiDARs and computing hardware will not be significant, accounting for $0.04B and $0.2B respectively.

With high penetration rates of radars and cameras in cars, the associated market revenues will recover rapidly from the coronavirus crisis. Camera market revenue will take two years to surpass 2019’s level and will reach $4.9B in 2025 at a CAGR of 13%. LiDAR market revenue is quite limited today as only one OEM is implementing this sensor as an option in some of its cars. Other OEMs are expected to follow in coming years, but the implementation will remain limited to luxury vehicles, and therefore low volumes are expected. In this context, LiDAR market revenue is expected to reach $1.6B in 2025 at a CAGR of 111%. LiDAR is a complex sensor for OEMs and Tier-1s to integrate and radars and cameras are, at the same time, continuously improving their performance.

...the penetration rate of forward ADAS mono cameras will increase from 38% in 2020 to 55% in 2025. This type of camera is multi-purpose and is used for AEB for also for other functionalities like Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) or Traffic Sign Recognition (TSR) in mainstream cars. For most advanced cars, forward ADAS triple cameras are used to develop advanced automated driving features like Tesla’s.

On the LiDAR side, technology is moving from a macro-mechanical scanning to MEMS scanning and flash. Most LiDAR manufacturers are involved in these solid-state technologies. One of the issues for LiDAR is its integration into the vehicle. Today it is integrated in the grill, but that may not be the ideal solution. Two other positions, in headlamps or behind the windshield, are targeted by Tier-1s and OEMs.

To do so, more R&D will be necessary to reduce the volume of this sensor and allow its integration. Another issue for LiDAR is the need to process the large quantity of data it generates. High computing power, over 25 teraoperations per second (Tops), will be necessary. The last issue with LiDAR is its cost compared to the two other technologies. It is about 10 times costlier than an ADAS mono camera. Alongside volume reduction, cost reduction will also be required for significant adoption by OEMs.

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